What If Google Disappeared Tomorrow?

I asked that question on one of our team calls this month, and we haven’t been able to put it down since. If people just stopped searching for your service, how would you get in front of them?

It sounds like a thought experiment. A quieter version of it is already underway, and we can prove it with numbers instead of vibes, so that’s exactly what this post is going to do. Then we’re going to show you a shop that the slowdown barely touches, with its books open.

We Pulled Five Years of Search Data. Here’s What It Says.

We’ve had been watching search volume slide across the accounts we manage, and we don’t publish feelings, so we pulled five years of national Google data on 28 bottom-of-funnel buyer searches. Every “near me,” every “cost,” every “installer” term across window tint, ceramic coating, and paint protection film, from August 2021 through this summer, cross-checked across two independent data sources.

Every single category tells the same story. Demand climbed through 2022 and 2023, peaked in late 2024 or early 2025, and has been falling ever since.

Service (combined buyer terms) | Peak monthly searches | Today | Change from peak
Window tint (11 terms) | 1,690,900 (Dec 2024) | 1,137,000 | down 33%
Ceramic coating (7 terms) | 87,700 (Apr 2025) | 47,700 | down 46%
Paint protection film (10 terms) | 99,400 (Nov 2024) | 68,070 | down 32%

The ceramic number deserves a second look, because it isn’t just down. Ceramic coating searches have given back the entire boom. The volume today sits almost exactly where it sat in August 2021. Four years of growth, fully unwound.

If your shop has felt slower this year and you’ve been blaming your ads, your ads person, or yourself, this is the context nobody handed you. The pool of people searching for your services is a third to nearly half smaller than it was at the top.

Why More Ad Spend Can’t Fix This

Here’s the uncomfortable mechanic underneath those numbers. You can outbid every competitor in your market, and it will not make one more person search for ceramic coating. Ad spend buys you a bigger slice of the pie, and it cannot grow the pie.

So when the pie shrinks, the shops that rented all of their demand from one channel feel it first and feel it hardest. The ads still run. The invoices still come. But payroll stays fixed while the jobs don’t, and the burn rate flips. We’ve watched it happen this year to good shops with good work, and it’s a hell of a thing to watch, because the craft was never what failed. What failed was a growth model that only eats when Google feeds it.

We’ve said for years that ads amplify the business you already have. AI is now amplifying it even harder, because the machines answering buyer questions read the same trust signals a human does. Strong fundamentals get louder. Weak ones get exposed. There was never a cheat code, and the shops that believed in one are the ones hurting right now.

Case Study: The Shop That Doesn’t Flinch

Now the other side of the story, with receipts.

One of our clients runs a ceramic coating, PPF, and tint shop in Austin, Texas. He’s been at it for years, and the foundation went in the way we always build it: the website first, engineered to sell, with a quote form that captures the buyer’s year, make, and model before the shop spends a minute on the conversation. Then the demand systems layered on top of it, spread across search, maps, video, and social, so no single channel ever holds the calendar hostage.

This spring we did something most agencies never do. We took one quarter, April through June, pulled every opportunity out of the CRM and every payment out of the ledger, and matched them customer by customer. Collected money, traced back to the lead that produced it.

In 90 days, the shop collected $290,392. And $138,108 of it, nearly half, came from customers who didn’t exist in the system 90 days earlier.

Here’s where those brand-new customers came from:

Lead source | Leads | New paying customers | Collected
Website (quote form + calls) | 355 | 42 | $51,677
Google (profile, organic, ads) | 244 | 33 | $38,411
Walk-ins, referrals, repeat | — | 44 | $48,020

The website out-earned every other marketing channel in the building. Inside that number, the quote form did the heavy lifting: 183 form fills produced $88,699 in quote requests and a 42% booking rate, better than two qualified requests a day, every day, including the days nobody touched the phone.

And the buyers it attracts are the ones a protection shop is built around. We traced the actual vehicles on those quote requests. Half were 2022 or newer. A quarter were 2025 or 2026 models, weeks off the lot. New Land Rover Defenders, an Audi RS Q8, a 911 Turbo S, a steady run of brand-new Teslas, arriving through the form asking about film and coatings for paint that barely has miles on it. Jobs on those newer vehicles averaged $1,829, while older vehicles averaged $642. Nearly three times the ticket, from the same website.

So run the math on his exposure to the slowdown. Half his quarter came from relationships and repeat business that no algorithm can take away. The other half came from an engine spread across five surfaces. If Google disappeared tomorrow, this shop still eats. That’s the whole point of building it this way.

This Is the Big 3 Doing Its Job

We build a shop’s growth as one engine with three systems, and we install them in a deliberate order.

Generate creates demand everywhere the buyer looks: search, maps, video, social, the AI answers, and ads layered together so no single channel holds the shop hostage. Prove earns the buyer’s trust before anyone talks, with a website built to sell, reviews treated as currency, and video proof of the actual work. Secure turns the raised hand into a booked job, with speed-to-lead, quote follow-up, and honest source reporting that shows what every lead did and what it paid.

The Austin numbers above exist because that ecosystem is trackable end to end. We didn’t guess that the website out-earned Google. We traced every collected dollar back through the pipeline to the lead that started it, and we can do it again any quarter, for any shop running the system. Most owners have never once seen their marketing accounted for at that level, and honestly, most agencies would rather keep it that way.

The website comes first in the build order every time, because it’s the one asset the shop owns outright. The map pack, YouTube, Instagram, the review sites, the AI answer box, all of that is rented ground. We use it hard, and every rented surface points back at the hub the shop actually owns. Rent the reach. Own the machine.

The Question Is Still on the Table

Demand moves. It always has. The searches that are down 46% today may recover next year, or they may keep sliding as buying behavior moves into AI answers and feeds. Either way, the shops that win won’t be the ones that found a cheaper click. They’ll be the ones that built an engine that runs on more than one fuel line, while their competitors were still refreshing the leads tab.

So sit with my question for a minute. If Google disappeared tomorrow, would your shop still eat?

If you want the honest answer instead of the hopeful one, that’s what a Shop Calibration is for. We’ll locate exactly where your machine stands, where it’s leaking, and what the same 90 days could look like with the foundation in first. The numbers in this study came out of a CRM and a payment ledger, one row at a time. Yours will too.

Don’t Compete. Dominate.

Search data: U.S. national monthly volumes for 28 bottom-of-funnel keywords, August 2021 to May 2026, via Google Ads keyword data, cross checked with public SERP data. Client results from one engagement, April to June 2026. Results not guaranteed. Individual results vary.